Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay
Saltburn Courtesy of Amazon Studios & MGM
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 24, 2023): “Barbie” is the highest-grossing film of the year (so far) and Warner Bros. has a viable awards player across the board. One lingering question remains: Which screenplay category it is designated to compete in?
On the title cards, it reads “Based on ‘Barbie’ by Mattel,” which is a toy company. At the same time, multiple CGI films and TV series have featured the fashion doll since its debut in the late 1980s (42 to be precise). This would point to an “adapted” run. However, take the case of Pixar’s inaugural feature “Toy Story” (1995), which picked up an original screenplay nom (Joss Whedon, Andrew Stanton, Joel Cohen, Alec Sokolow, John Lasseter, Pete Docter, Joe Ranft). In that case, it offers a pathway for original. The CGI classic features characters such as Mr. Potato Head, a Hasbro product, and other toys such as Etch A Sketch, Magic 8 Ball and even parts of Barbie herself. Part of the Mutant Toys, which are creations of Andy’s sadistic kid neighbor Sid, he has one called “Legs” — which are a pair of Barbie doll legs attached to a green toy fishing rod.
One of the most prominent examples of existing IP and toy products competing in original was Warner Bros’ “The Lego Movie,” based on the famed building blocks from Phil Lord and Chris Miller. The film had pre-existing characters like Batman and Superman in it. Ultimately, it wasn’t nominated.
From a competitive standpoint, previous Oscar nominees Gerwig and Baumbach competing against independent dramas like “Past Lives” (Celine Song) or dramedies like “May December” (Sam Burch, Alex Mechanik) would present a better winning opportunity than going against “Barbenheimer” rival “Oppenheimer” (Christopher Nolan) or a movie featuring legends like “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese).
We’ll keep an eye on that debate. Until then, we still have other potential favorites from the first half of 2023, such as “Past Lives” by Celine Song and “Air” by Alex Convery.
Fall festivals will help fill this category out over the next few weeks.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
- Listed writer credits are not final. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach **
- “Past Lives” (A24) — Celine Song
- “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios) — Emerald Fennell
- “May December” (Netflix) — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
- “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — David Hemingson
Next in Line
- “Fair Play” (Netflix) – Chloe Domont
- “Maestro” (Netflix) — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
- “Air” (Amazon Studios) — Alex Convery
- “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
- “The Iron Claw” (A24) — Sean Durkin
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) — Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
- “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) — David Scarpa
- “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jennifer Lee, Allison Moore
- “Rustin” (Netflix) — Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black
- “El Conde” (Netflix) — Pablo Larraín, Guillermo Calderón
- “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films) — Christos Nikou
- “Migration” (Illumination) — Mike White
- “Monica” (IFC Films) — Andrea Pallaoro, Orlando Tirado
- “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Angus MacLachlan
- “Fallen Leaves” (Mubi) — Aki Kaurismäki
Also In Contention
- “She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment) — Rebecca Miller
- “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — John Carney
- “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features) — A.V. Rockwell
- “Cassandro” (Amazon Studios) — Roger Ross Williams, David Teague
- “Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions) — Ray Romano, Mark Stegemann
- “Elemental” (Pixar) — Peter Sohn, John Hoberg, Kat Likkel, Brenda Hsueh
- “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate) — Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao, Adele Lim
- “Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Noora Niasari
- “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures) — Stefani Robinson
- “Dream Scenario” (A24) — Kristoffer Borgli
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- “The Creator” (20th Century Studios) — Gareth Edwards, Chris Weitz
- “Beau is Afraid” (A24) — Ari Aster
- “Dream Scenario” (A24) — Kristoffer Borgli
- “The Iron Claw” (A24) — Sean Durkin
- “Past Lives” (A24) — Celine Song
- “Showing Up” (A24) — Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt
- “You Hurt My Feelings” (A24) — Nicole Holofcener
- “Cassandro” (Amazon Studios) — Roger Ross Williams, David Teague
- “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios) — Emerald Fennell
- “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films) — Christos Nikou
- “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — John Carney
- “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) — David Scarpa
- “Suzume” (Crunchyroll) — Makoto Shinkai
- “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) — Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
- “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — David Hemingson
- “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features) — A.V. Rockwell
- “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids/Toho) — Hayao Miyazaki
- “Monica” (IFC Films) — Andrea Pallaoro, Orlando Tirado
- “Migration” (Illumination) — Mike White
- “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate) — Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao, Adele Lim
- “Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures) — Paul Schrader
- “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion) — Emma Seligman, Rachel Sennott
- “Fallen Leaves” (Mubi) — Aki Kaurismäki
- “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
- “La Chimera” (Neon) — Alice Rohrwacher
- “Perfect Days” (Neon) — Takuma Takasaki, Wim Wenders
- “El Conde” (Netflix) — Pablo Larraín, Guillermo Calderón
- “Fair Play” (Netflix) — Chloe Domont
- “May December” (Netflix) — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
- “Maestro” (Netflix) — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
- “Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire” (Netflix) — Zack Snyder, Kurt Johnstad, Shay Hatten
- “Rustin” (Netflix) — Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black
- “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) — Zach Baylon, Frank E. Flowers, Terence Winter **
- “Elemental” (Pixar) — Peter Sohn, John Hoberg, Kat Likkel, Brenda Hsueh
- “Moving On” (Roadside Attractions) — Paul Weitz
- “Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions) — Ray Romano, Mark Stegemann
- “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures) — Stefani Robinson
- “Magazine Dreams” (Searchlight Pictures) — Elijah Bynum **
- “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Angus MacLachlan
- “The Miracle Club” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Jimmy Smallhorne, Timothy Prager, Joshua D. Maurer
- “Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Maryam Keshavarz
- “Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Noora Niasari
- “The Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics) — İlker Çatak, Johannes Duncker
- “M3gan” (Universal Pictures) — Akela Cooper, James Wan
- “She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment) — Rebecca Miller
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach **
- “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jennifer Lee, Allison Moore
2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could be campaigned or moved into another category. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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Oscars Predictions: Best Original Screenplay — ‘Barbie’ Categorization Could Determine Whether Greta Gerwig Wins - Variety
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